Erbil → Istanbul Turbulence Forecast
General route view · EBL → IST
✓ Mostly Calm
2:30
Almost entirely calm; a brief bump or two — uncomfortable, never dangerous.
→ What is turbulence?What is turbulence?
4 min · Learn
Turbulence from a pilot's view
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Recognizing the flight panic loop
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How dangerous is turbulence, really? 43 years of data
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What's in the pilot briefing? What you don't see
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What is the jet stream, and why do you feel it at cruise?
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24 hours before your flight
5 min · Guides
What to do during turbulence: 4 steps
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My first flight: a step-by-step guide for first-timers
7 min · Guides
General route view · EBL → IST
2:30
Almost entirely calm; a brief bump or two — uncomfortable, never dangerous.
→ What is turbulence?TAKEOFF
Brief
First 20 min
CRUISE
Smooth
1h 50m
LANDING
Smooth
Last 20 min
Erbil → Istanbul route, 1,430 km. Crosses Anatolia, the Mediterranean, and the Balkans. On short routes, any turbulence is usually brief and tied to climb or approach.
This forecast is calculated from the same ECMWF Open Data model airlines use (Ellrod TI2), and it only changes when the model refreshes on its own cycle. Refreshing the page every few minutes will not change the result.
Checking over and over tends to feed anxiety. A kinder rhythm is to look once the day before, once before you head to the airport, and then let it go. Being curious is very human; there is no need to be hard on yourself.
If the worry rises, breathe out slowly and feel your feet on the floor; even that much settles the body. All the techniques for fear of flying
Erbil to Istanbul is about 1,431 km and usually takes around 2h 30m in the air. The track it follows runs over the Anatolian plateau and the Middle East.
Air lifting over the Anatolian plateau can raise brief, light ripples at cruise; crews know these spots well and the movement stays gentle. Above the Middle East daytime heat can stir shallow thermals lower down, but the air smooths out at cruise.
On a flight this short most of the time is climb and descent, so any small movements come early and late; the cruise in between is brief but calm.
Is turbulence dangerous?
Modern aircraft are engineered to handle even the heaviest turbulence. Turbulence is uncomfortable, but not a structural threat. Pilots can change altitude or routing to find calmer air.
Which times of day are smoothest?
Early morning and night flights tend to be smoother — thermal currents from solar heating can cause mild bumps on afternoon departures.
Why are there light bumps at cruise altitude?
At cruise altitude (around 10-12 km), wind shear from the jet stream can produce brief clear-air turbulence. It usually lasts a few minutes; the pilot turns on the seatbelt sign, sometimes adjusts routing.
How reliable is this forecast?
The forecast is computed from the winds of the same global weather model airlines use for flight planning. No weather forecast is 100%; treat this as direction, not a guarantee.
How do pilots know about turbulence ahead of time?
Before each flight, pilots get a wind map briefing, ICAO SIGMET (significant meteorological advisories), and pilot reports (PIREPs) from other aircraft. In flight, they stay in active contact with ATC and nearby aircraft.
Learn
What is turbulence?
4 min
Learn
Turbulence from a pilot's view
4 min
Learn
Recognizing the flight panic loop
5 min
Learn
How dangerous is turbulence, really? 43 years of data
6 min
Learn
What's in the pilot briefing? What you don't see
5 min
Learn
What is the jet stream, and why do you feel it at cruise?
5 min
Guides
24 hours before your flight
5 min
Guides
What to do during turbulence: 4 steps
4 min
Guides
My first flight: a step-by-step guide for first-timers
7 min
Data: global weather model (ECMWF) · Generated Wed 13:22