How Turbuly works

This page explains where the forecasts come from and how they become a plain "calm / light / moderate" read. The short version: this is a probability, not a certainty, and aircraft are built for it.

Where the data comes from

Our turbulence forecasts come from ECMWF Open Data. ECMWF is a global weather model whose data is published openly. This is a general route view, not an operational flight briefing. ECMWF Open Data

From raw data to a verdict

From the model's upper-air wind data we look at how the wind changes with altitude (wind shear) and how it stretches, deforms and converges horizontally. Together these form a well-established turbulence indicator called Ellrod TI2. We turn the result into four plain tiers: Calm, Light, Moderate, Notable. No EDR numbers, no jargon, just a straight answer about how your flight is likely to feel.

How often, how far ahead

The model refreshes every 6 hours, and so does our forecast. Check a few days before your flight and you see the latest picture; it sharpens as departure approaches. We do not show the distant future as "certain", because weather does not work that way.

What it can and cannot promise

A turbulence forecast is a picture of probability, not certainty. It does not say "you will be shaken at this exact minute"; it says "this route is likely to be calm today". And most important: turbulence can be uncomfortable, but it is not a structural threat. Aircraft are designed to handle far more than this.

Pilot reports

Alongside the forecast, we can show real turbulence reports that pilots file in flight (NOAA AWC PIREPs). The forecast looks ahead; pilot reports tell you what actually happened at that moment. The two complement each other.